In the big inning, part I

We kick off the blog with predictions concerning the upcoming baseball season, because I had so much fun doing the NCAA tournament punditry, even though I was very wrong. The same caveats apply here; this is mostly an exercise in nostalgia, creativity and rank speculation, no intelligent wagering should be made on their behalf.

Since this is the Midwest, I will start with the Central division in both leagues, then fan out East to West.

National League

Central Division

1st: Milwaukee Brewers (83-79): It was not so long ago that the American and National leagues were still very distinct entities. They had separate league offices, different sets of umpires, and, most notably, a different set of rules regarding the designated hitter. Even though both were ultimately under the auspices of MLB, there was still a persistent hint of rivalry between the leagues; you were either a National League fan who didn't follow the AL as much, or vice versa. That's mostly gone now; interleague play has been introduced, the league offices have been disbanded and the umpiring crew has been integrated.

I'm one of the few who actually supports the status quo on the DH rule because it maintains a small piece of that unique rival-league structure that was usually flushed out of other sports leagues that merged. Though perhaps as an old National Leaguer, I should be glad, because right now we're getting our asses beat six ways to Sunday. I can't recall a time when there was more disparity between the leagues than the present (granted, in the past the NL would not have been exposed to interleague play) and nowhere is that more readily apparent than the Central, which, despite having six teams playing an unbalanced schedule, was hard-pressed to squeak out a .500 team in 2006. Expect a repeat performance in 2007. The only thing this division has going for it is what should be a close race. I've been picking the Brewers for a couple of years now, so I'm going to stick with that until they finally make me look smart.

2nd. St. Louis Cardinals (81-81): The Cardinals won the World Series with fewer regular-season wins than any team in baseball history. The good news is that their poor record can be largely attributed to injuries; the bad news is that those injuries can be largely attributed to the onset of old age on too many key players. The absence of much certainty behind Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter make the Cardinals one of the more volatile teams in baseball, capable of rebounding to 90 wins or collapsing to 90 losses. I'll put the arrow down somewhere in the midpoint. Player to watch: Braden Looper, whom St. Louis is trying to rehabilitate as a starter. Was John Tudor not available?

3rd. Chicago Cubs (79-83): I freakin' hate the Cubs. The Reds might have been far out of the playoff chase in September 2004, but when they went in to Wrigley and won three of four in the last week of the season to knock the Cubs out of the race, it was like winning the World Series. The Cubs responded to their 96-lost meltdown last year by throwing wads of money at very ordinary players like Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis, and by dumping Dusty Baker for the moist remains of Lou Pinella. It probably wasn't worth it, but it should get them a few wins in the standings, and at the very least convince a nation of masochistic Cubs fans that they really do cheer for a deep-pocketed big-market team, though getting such an idea through the oblivion of their consciousness isn't something a wise person ought to attempt.

4th: Pittsburgh Pirates (75-87): Mainstream sportswriters typically follow whatever beat the baseball owners set for them. A few years ago, when the owners were crying poverty and claiming the playing field was hopelessly stacked against small-market teams, the jock press gladly took up the call, wasting countless forests decrying the lack of competitive balance in baseball. "Some teams start every season knowing they have no shot at the playoffs," they ceaselessly whined.

It was always bollocks, for a multitude of reasons. Firstly, baseball has the most exclusive playoffs of the four major sports, so every team naturally starts further away from the playoffs. You can't hope to eke up to .500 and be in the playoff race (unless you are in this division, of course.) Secondly, the NFL plays a 16-game schedule over four months, MLB plays a 162-game schedule over six months; which is more likely to weed out the pretenders?

And finally, this meme has died out because, in fact, there aren't as many nohopers in baseball as the owners and press claimed, with many of the ex-runts like the Twins, Padres and Brewers experiencing a renaissance. Even the Royals and Devil Rays are loaded with prospect power. The one team deserving of the label are the lowly Pirates, and, as is so often the case, this can be blamed as much on awful management as any inherent disadvantage. The Pirates look like they'll see out another two-term president without a winning season, though they will avoid last, if only because there are somehow two teams worse in this division.

5th. Cincinnati Reds (73-89): The Reds franchise once changed its nicknamed to "Redlegs" for a time during the Red Scare, because the country needed reassuring they were sufficiently capitalist. Marge Schott was certainly a capitalist, and perhaps also a fascist, not to mention fond of dogs and farm animals in a strictly platonic sense, I say, though not with great certainty. It's fitting, I suppose, that I should be stuck with them. The Reds flirted with a winning season in 2006 for the first time in awhile, but it was illusory. The offense is suddenly very average, and the last 9 of the pitching staff is still a giant question mark. At least the team is slowly getting younger, though the farm system has never really recovered from Schott's gutting.

6th: Houston Astros (66-96): You have to give the Houston franchise cdit; their uniform design manages to always typify the zeitgeist. Who can forget that glorious spectrum of orange wrapped around the torso back in the 80's? And the present team's duds, the ultimate in ultra-sleek modern boredom. Note to the wardrobe people; it's ok to not have curves!

The Astros have insisted on batting Craig Biggio, Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett everyday for a few years now. This is the year it catches up with them.


Eastern Division

1st. Philadelphia Phillies (90-72): The Phillies have fewer World Series wins than any of the "original 16" modern franchises, but at least they are not virgins, which is more than I can say for myself. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks. Remember kids, Santa Claus has a long memory.

2nd: New York Mets (87-75) The Mets should be entertaining this year as they try to outhit their anonymous pitching staff, which includes 41-year old Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez, whose age is known only to God. Glavine and the Mets both have one win in the books as of this writing, which puts Glavine nine away from the 300 mark. Favorite old Met: Kevin Elster.

3rd: Atlanta Braves (82-80): The Braves finally failed to win the division last year, after 2950342 straight seasons, which means we can finally put to rest the sportswriter cliche of not picking against them until they didn't win. Has any team in history ever transformed themselves from a lower-division nobody to a dynasty like the '90-'91 Braves? Bobby Cox has been around for all of it, and says he is retiring after 2008, giving him two seasons to chase John McGraw's ejections record. C'mon Bobby, you know you're angry...

4th Florida Marlins (76-86) The Marlins may be a young franchise, but their short history calls to mind one of the oldest franchises in baseball, which also happened to wear green. The Philadelphia A's, whose manager Connie Mack was also a part owner, established a cycle in the first four decades of the twentieth century of building a pennant winner, then selling off the players at their peak value, then building another great team from scratch. The Marlins may be on their way to pulling this trick a third time, though not if their owner, the despicable Jeffrey Loria, has anything to say about it.

5th. Washington Nationals (64-98): Different name, same results. The Nats are an unfortunate injury or two away from a truly catastrophic season, but they are hoping to be good in time for the new stadium to open (isn't everybody?). They aren't brimming with up-and-comers, though, so here's hoping the new owners like to spend money. Preferably with someone smarter than Jim Bowden writing the checks. Like you or me, say.

Western Division:

1st: Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68): Arizona hasn't been around long enough to write something pithy. This division's also a crapshoot, and, while I don't think Arizona is 94-wins good, I think they are the least likely to break down, and someone in the National League has to win more than 90. Don't expect much from whoever dresses up in the Randy Johnson Skeleton, though.

2nd: San Diego Padres (85-78): Baseball has so many great old nicknames that you just wouldn't see on a new, focus-group tested zoom-zoom-swoosh outfit. Do we really need more Panthers and Jaguars? San Diego fans should enjoy it while it lasts, before some nativist nut figures out "Padres" is more America-corroding Es-Pan-Yole. Greg Maddux and David Wells lost their horse-and-carriage ticket to San Francisco and ended up here instead.

3rd: Los Angeles Dodgers (83-79) The LA sportswriters were gleeful to be rid of that terrifyingly emasculating Paul Depodesta, and it led to a division title, though if only because DePo's geek dollars couldn't buy the right Nomar-bot parts. The Dodgers are mediocre, but at least they have a Real Man in the GM's chair. I dare not wonder what would have happened had they hired Kim Ng; Bill Platschke would've choked on his typewriter!

4th Colorado Rockies (78-84) Indiana native Clint Barmes injures himself carrying deer meat in 2005, then rebounds to post a ghastly -20 VORP. A good start wasted, like the Rockies themselves, who made the playoffs in their third season but haven't come close since. Typically the quality of the product inside the Rox stadium matches the quality of the product inside the containers of the company whose name adorns said stadium. Or so I've been told.

5th. San Francisco Giants (69-93): It seems incongruous for the Giants to play in Corporate Telephone Stadium (though which corporation it is changes weekly), since a good portion of their roster predates Alex Bell's invention. Like the Astros, the Giants have been a team tempting fate for a few seasons, they are ripe for a collapse. I hear they have some player chasing some record, but the magic-8-ball says "not this season."


NL Champion: Arizona