15 March 2016

Asking the important questions


Here's something I wrote back in 2012.

The problem with lesser-evilism, though, is that, while you may get less evil now, you will surely get more evil later. Because your tepid, center-right New Democrats won't win every election. This is still a balanced, two-party system, and the public's preference inevitably swings back and forth from one party to the other. Talk of a permanent majority, of shutting the other party completely out of power for a generation, doesn't work. It was a fantasy when Republicans were kicking around the idea in 2004; and it was equally so in 2008 when some Democrats were crowing about the complete obliteration of the old Republican Party, and how that party would have to reinvent itself to survive. It did reinvent itself, of course, by driving even harder to the right and coming back to win the midterm elections in decisive fashion. 
While most of what I've written in my life has been, and continues to be, really dumb, I'm gonna pat myself on the back for the moment in claiming prescience on the Republican Party nominating an bona fide quasi-fascist clown for president, although it has come much faster than even I would have dared predict. In that environment, who knows who or what is sweeping into the White House four years from now? My money is on Nancy Reagan's severed head. Put me in, Nate Silver, I'm ready!

01 March 2016

I will now save you the trouble of living the next four and a half years

Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency primarily on the virtue of being Not Donald Trump in a bizarre campaign between two candidates who are deeply disliked by their own party but squeezed out the nominations with the support of rabidly loyal factions (it's interesting to compare Trump and HRC in this regard, since the most common comparison by serious media pundits is between the "angry populists" Trump and Bernie).

Her presidency will be a lame duck from day one, as once in office being Not Trump isn't going to paper over the dim view most people have of her.. One of the most unpopular major figures in US politics (her own party flirted with nominating a 74-year old secular Jewish social democrat over her) she'll have no grassroots support for a political agenda and will be facing a opposition-controlled unmotivated legislature which sees her, correctly, as an easy mark in 2020. By which time they are likely to coalesce around a less-clownish but equally horrifying ghoul of some creation.

You may want to start drinking now, so you'll be prepared for January 2021.